JPM Calendar- Entry

[msmenacker]

I have not closed out my JPM calendar trades, but decided to keep them open and roll for the credits. I am not sure how to calculate the profit/loss in the analzye tab since the TOS platform seems to undo the double calendar tent once a roll is completed, but here are my trades so far:

JPM Calendar trades:

9/11 opened 41 put Oct/Dec for 1.33 debit

9/17 opened 47 call Oct/Dec for 1.24 debit as stock price rose (total debit = 2.57)

9/23 closed 41 put Oct/Dec for 1.04 ($29/22% loss on individual spread; total debit=1.53)

9/23 opened 43 put Oct/Dec for 1.33 debit as price seemed to stabilize (total debit=2.86)

10/1 rolled 43 put Oct/Nov for 1.04 credit as stock dropped with market (total debit = 1.82)

10/2 rolled 47 put Oct/Nov for .75 credit as stock rebounded from lows and vol was still high (total debit = 1.07)

Now I have a roll for each strike left with total risk of 1.07. My forecast is for stock to remain in trading range between 40 and 47 for the next 4-6 weeks which feels very comfortable. Ideally I will get a roll close to $1 for each strike and receive 40-60% gain on the max debit/risk I had at one time.

Marjorie

[Mojo]

Yeah I agree the Analyze tab is terrible for rolling month to month. I can show you a couple of ways to track this during the team meeting but its usually best done on a spreadsheet.

Mojo

[mcowley]

Hi Marjorie,

Thanks for sharing the details of your JPM trade. I think it is so fascinating that there is no ONE right answer... that we can all start in almost the same place and then end up in very different positions, all of them profitable.

Your journey with JPM may prove to be the most profitable (at least of the people that posted here). But of course there are a number of factors to consider besides profitability when considering the success of a trade....

I'm curious if all of these adjustments cost you a lot of time (and maybe some stress) to deal with. Or if this is just a part of what you expect to do, taking in all in stride. (I find when I have a position that is approaching an adjustment point that I spend a lot of time watching it and simulating potential adjustments.)

Please do share with us how this all turns out.

Thanks,
Mark

[msmenacker]

Mojo - I do use a spreadsheet that a friend shared with me, as well as one I downloaded from the coaches at Investools.

Mark - The first spreadsheet I have takes a percentage of my portfolio and I can break it down into how many trades I can do based on the risk for each strategy. I had an allotment of 3 calendar trades that could risk up to $197 each, so I did not have a lot of stress or time determining the introductory trades. I used the analyze tab to find a similar tent of profitability that Mojo has demonstrated, but decided to start with a calendar close to atm. Again, I used Mojo's rule of adjusting around a 7-10% loss and just opened up another calendar around the atm strike so the tent of profitability looked right on the analyze tab. Once the stock started moving up so quickly I just made the adjustment as 41 seemed so far away at the time so I rolled to 43 without much addition to the risk. Of course I have a small account and only have 1 contract on each position, but it's all about learning!

I did not spend a lot of time on it, but at work I have the luxury of being able to peek at the market on TOS every hour or so and can catch the moves like I did to roll the 43 as the market dropped last week. I do make note of my break even roll value on each calendar and try to get at least 50% more for each roll than the break even so it helps me determine if the time is right to make the roll.

I will update when the next move happens!

Marjorie

[Mojo]

The hardest part for me is not staying in the trade for an extra week or two and pulling out more profit!

[ANCOLL]

The hardest part for me is not staying in the trade for an extra week or two and pulling out more profit!

I dont think this is a bad idea,
sometimes I wait the trade too long, just to see my profit turned into loss

[mwoody95]

Well done. We're floored with the value of the information presented. I have high hopes that you continue with the great job conducted.